July – December 2016: +149.5
Jan – June 2016: +47.74
July – December 2015: +147.6
Not the day I was hoping for and I think the way that Miss Benefitz was ridden was a big “screw you” to any one with the audacity to back the horse this morning.
Horsted Keynes would probably have won if a certain pair of friends were not intent upon enjoying a huge bonanza by having the first and second in the race but hopefully some of you availed yourselves of a rather nice each way price on the Simcock runner when it drifted alarmingly.
On to Wednesday…..
Treat Yourself is a ten year old of Hammond’s that steps back up in trip here and simultaneously down in class.
However unlikely a bumper winner of Jonathan Haynes’ may appear an eye should be kept on Getonsam here which is the only Black Sam Bellamy representative.
Storm Nelson runs here for Tom Lacey and Richard Johnson. The champion jockey rode it on debut at Ayr when it ran a very creditable fourth to Sam’s Adventure, Ellison’s very useful bumper horse. The horse shared the lead for the first two thirds of the race before relinquishing the lead and falling some way behind the front three. After descending into sixth position and looking like it would fade tamely into the undergrowth Johnson allowed an inch of rein out and the horse started to stay on in taking fashion in the last furlong to take an easy fourth position. Towcester looks likely to suit it perfectly and the ground will surely bring out the best in it if a good run is planned.
Sophie Leech has not tried with Tingo In The Tale on any of its starts for the yard so far and a mark of 52 is certainly capable of being taken advantage of if the mood takes connections.
Noel Quinlan brings back Fire In Babylon after 508 days and in his guise as Giles Bravery. The horse is more than able to take this race from a figure of 50 and money for it should be heeded.
Mighty Zip may be worth taking a chance on if you have to have a bet in this. Williamson has it way below the sort of marks it was running with credit off for Kevin Ryan. It ran well from the front last time even though it was kept wide from the start and was dragged backwards from the furlong pole to be beaten only four lengths.
Fabulous Flyer will probably be well backed for this after being withdrawn a couple off days ago when poorly drawn.
I liked the last run of Rojina but stall eight is nothing to get excited about whilst Mr Michael and Insolenceofoffice have not been tried with recently and hold every chance if trying.
A seller which was won by Top Offer last year. Graham Lee rides the horse he finished third on three weeks ago.
I quite like the chance of Light From Mars setting the race up for either Malaysian Boleh or Pool House, both of which should be staying on nicely in the final furlong.
This is a decent prize that is on offer (for Wolverhampton in February) and although Byron Flyer has to be seriously considered from the Ian Williams yard as an unexposed six year old on the level the eye was drawn to Kirk’s Percy Veer when it last ran twenty days ago. The race was undoubtedly “sorted” before the off and basically given to Millman’s Icebuster. Percy Veer caught the eye with the ride he received and Mitch Godwin may find he has quite a bit of horse under him today if he is instructed to press the button.
Rezwaan wasn’t off a yard behind Rail Dancer last time and it remains to be seen whether it will win without being partnered by Big Ears today from stall two. Pareks takes the ride in this apprentice event and its mark of 49 is little more than a joke.
Katalan of Butler’s has been fitted with a hood and Darragh Keenan claims seven from stall thirteen. If it agrees to come out of the stalls it could hose up.
Color Force is a very interesting runner for Kelleway with a sizeable step up in trip likely to bring about improvement eventually but will it be today?
Quintus Cerialis could win this very easily if asked to try from stall two and is very well handicapped after many non trying efforts of late.
The top two, Dominium and Indian Affair, are well worth taking an interest in as both are very nicely treated by their handicap marks and have been running well without trying.
Indian Affair was not off a yard when second to Dream Farr two starts back at Wolves and was beaten a length last time at Chelmsford without ever being put in the race. It races off its last winning mark and Franny Norton is on board for Milton Bradley who has three runners this evening that hold good claims.
It is only a matter of time before Butler gets a win out of Falcao and Boyle is yet to try with Muthraab Aldaar which returns from a short break.
I will be watching the market like a hawk in regard to anything that comes the way of Lily Ash of Mike Murphy’s. The last two maiden races it ran in were a year and a half ago but they were full of horses that have come out and won and a mark of 63 looks more than lively with Big Ears on board.
Not a likeable race and Franco’s Secret may well complete the hat trick but I will be interested in Mister Music if it holds its position in the market as with a more positive ride it would have run Hedger’s horse close last time out.
This would look to be a race where, strangely enough, all of the known friendly faces in the South have clubbed together to support Kempton in its hour of need. James Bethell has joined in as the legal immigrant from the North but this race could be won by, quite literally, anything.
Milton Bradley is bloody annoying as far as I am concerned. He has passed up two opportunities of winning races with Spirit Of Gondree recently when we would have had nice prices all in favour of winning this at much reduced odds.
Zabdi and Ixelles Diamond both ahve very good chances if asked to try with the latter very well handicapped on old form. Ixelles Diamond has always looked to me as one that is reluctant ot let itself down on ground firmer than bog-like but I am available to be corrected if proven wrong.
Spirit Of Gondree has been stopped repeatedly for a long while and has not been ridden to suit in its last two appearances behind Athassel and Fire Diamond. On both occasions it has been allowed to run too close to the pace and has still had to be restrained to lose. Luke Morris is on top today and stall six should allow it to grab a decent pitch before coming through to win with some authority. I am always aware that any selection has to try before it can win but I am 99& sure if Spirit Of Gondree tries this evening then it will come out on top.
There are five or six in this that could come to the fore if asked but the two I feel are most likely to win are Rocket Ronnie and I Can’t Stop.
Barr has only been working on Rocket Ronnie for a short time but he didn’t need much work doing on him after the measures previous trainers had taken.
I Can’t Stop ran exceptionally well around here over seven two starts ago and was then buried at Chelmsford a week ago. Off a mark off 50 it is like a loaded gun just waiting to go off and represents very good value at double figure prices.
4:40 Towcester Storm Nelson WIN 15/2 Bet365
8:20 Kempton Spirit Of Gondree 2 pts WIN 11/4 Bet365/Skybet/Betvic
8:50 Kempton I Can’t Stop EW 14/1 Bet365/SKybet/Betvic
Good Luck all